Commentators have been filling the airways with theories about
why the jury is taking so long. They think it is good for the
prosecutor. No wait, it's good for the defendant. Here is the truth.
First, the jury has not been out for an extraordinary long time. The
Oliver North jury was out 12 days. The Scooter Libby jury was out ten
days. In both cases they were convicted. Second, it is impossible to
know what it means that the jury has been out for three days.
The Manafort case was very complicated. The jury must decide on
18 separate charges. Among other terrible things about this judge, he
did not let the jury examine the exhibits until the entire pile was
handed to them when they started their deliberations. In the courtrooms
where I tried cases, we were allowed to hand the exhibits to the
jurors during trial. In this case the jurors evidently had to try to
figure out which exhibit went with which criminal charge.
I thought it was 50/50 that the jury would return a verdict
today. Now I think it's 75/25 they will return a verdict tomorrow. I
have absolutely no basis for making my prediction. Maybe they will
reach a verdict tomorrow. Or maybe they won't reach a verdict for
another week. Regardless of when the jury reaches a verdict, I am
sticking with my prediction. It is impossible that Manafort will be
found not guilty on all of the counts. The evidence against him is
overwhelming. The best he can hope for is one or two jurors holding out
on all 18 counts. Then it's a hung jury. So relax. Easy for me to
say, I will be taking tranquilizers until the jury returns a verdict.
Take care all.
Richard
No comments:
Post a Comment