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Tuesday, April 30, 2019

To impeach or not to impeach, that is the question

Without question there are multiple bases to impeach tRUMP.  Most discussions center on Mueller's findings of obstruction of justice.  tRUMP says there were no high crimes or misdemeanors. I would like to point out there are more bases for impeachment than just those.  The constitution also provides for impeachment where there has been treason or bribery.   I suggest that any president who accepts  the word of the head of a foreign enemy and disparages his own security experts is guilty of treason. (remember the judge in the Michael Flynn case said that Flynn's actions sounded like treason.) I suggest that any president who makes money (emoluments) from foreign officials is guilty of bribery.   Whether to impeach, however, is a complicated question which could be only  answered with a crystal ball.  If  we knew for certain how impeachment proceedings would affect the 2020 elections, the answer would be simple.  Here is my analysis.

        Regardless of whether tRUMP is impeached by the House,  It is almost a certainty that tRUMP will be President until January 2021.  It is inconceivable that there will be 20 Republican Senators who would vote for conviction.  About the only way that would happen is if the golden shower tapes or some other bombshell drops.   So the number 1 priority is to make sure tRUMP is not President in February 2021. The number 2 priority is to make sure we retain the House.  Number  3 priority is winning the Senate.

           Democrats must make their best calculation as to how impeachment proceedings would affect the 2020 elections.  Many Democrats are gun shy because of the Republican experience with the Clinton impeachment.  That exercise resulted in Clinton's approval rating skyrocketing.  It would be an unmitigated disaster if an impeachment of tRUMP would result in an increase in his approval rating similar to Clinton's.  That could result in his reelection.  Then priority 1 is lost.  This must   be avoided at all costs.
           Let's talk about priority no. 2.  There were approximately 40 seats that flipped from red to blue.  Most if not all were Republican districts.  Every one of these new congress men and women, must consider the feelings of their Republican constituents who voted for them.  I think that not a single one of the flippers ran on an anti tRUMP platform.  They ran on the issues.  If they use strong anti tRUMP rhetoric will that turn off Republicans who voted for them?  It would be horrible if we lose the House.

           There are strong arguments that an impeachment of tRUMP is far  different than the impeachment of Clinton.  I agree.  But a much better historical perspective than Clinton is the Nixon impeachment.  The House hearings lasted for almost two years.  Very slowly facts came out that led to the inevitability of Nixon either resigning or being removed.  I said at the time that the Nixon hearings were analogous to the peeling of an onion.  Layer after layer was peeled back until eventually you get to the stinking center.  I think that is exactly what will happen to tRUMP.

           Several House Dems have introduced articles of impeachment.  Those are representatives from safe Democratic districts.  They have nothing to lose by going after tRUMP.  But they have everything to lose if they are no longer in the majority. The impeachment articles  make us  feel good.  I think they are a mistake.  I come to the same conclusion as Nancy Pelosi.  Be deliberative.    Mueller has published a truckload of facts.  Congressional hearings can result in another truckload.  Let the hearings move forward in a deliberative way.  Let tRUMP supporters continue to show their blind support for this disgraceful human being.  tRUMP's base will never move.  But maybe more facts will move independents and principled Republicans.  We must stay focused on our priorities.  We cannot take a chance that tRUMP get reelected.

           The attached NYT article is the best I've seen  in describing the Democrats dilemma.  If I had a vote, I would vote against an immediate rush to impeachment.   Let the facts work there way into the American consciousness.  I will be satisfied if tRUMP is no longer the president in February 2021.  If that happens, he will still be facing a boatload of criminal and civil charges. Remember he is Individual 1.  That's only the beginning. As always, thanks for listening.


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